EPL Hump Day!

We have three picks for all the EPL action today, here they are:

• Everton -1
• Arsenal -1
• Newcastle v Blackburn OVER 2.5 goals
  

One Game Today

In the only La Liga match today, and a juicy one at that, we like Sevilla to win against Valencia, so either take them in a pick'em or moneyline, and we also like over 2.5 goals. We only recommend taking over 2.5 goals if you can find decent value though.

• Sevilla PICK
• Sevilla v Valencia OVER 2.5 goals
  

Europa League Late Picks

Here are the picks for the Europa League late games:

• AEK Athens v Anderlecht UNDER 2.5 goals
• Hajduk Split v Zenit Saint-Petersburg OVER 2.5 goals
• Getafe v Stuttgart OVER 2.5 goals
• Odense BK v BSC Young Boys OVER 3 goals
• PSV Eindhoven v Debreceni VSC UNDER 3.5 goals
• Sampdoria v Metalist Kharkiv UNDER 2.5 goals
• Sevilla v Karpaty Lviv OVER 3 goals
• PSG v Borussia Dortmund OVER 2.5 goals
• Liverpool v Napoli UNDER 2.5 goals
• Steaua Bucuresti v FC Utrecht UNDER 2.5 goals
• FC Porto v Besiktas OVER 2.5 goals
• SK Rapid Wien v CSKA Sofia OVER 2.5 goals
  

Europa League Early Picks

Here are todays picks for the early crop of Europa League games:

• Juventus v RB Salzburg OVER 2.5 goals
• Lech Poznan v Manchester City UNDER 2.5 goals
• Bayer Leverkusen v Aris Thessaloniki OVER 2.5 goals
• Rosenborg v Atletico Madrid OVER 2.5 goals
• Levski Sofia v Lille OSC OVER 2.5 goals
• KAA Gent v Sporting CP UNDER 3 goals
• Club Brugge v Dinamo Zagreb OVER 2.5 goals
• PAOK v Villareal UNDER 2.5 goals
• Dynamo Kyiv v AZ Alkmaar OVER 2.5 goals
• FC BATE Borisov v Sheriff Tiraspol OVER 2.5 goals
• FC Lausanne-Sport v AC Sparta Praha UNDER 3 goals
• CSKA Moscow v Palermo OVER 2.5 goals

Champions League Binge

More football today. Our asses are sore from those bad beats we took yesterday. We had expected both of the fixtures featuring Bundesliga sides Schalke & Werder Bremen to go over 2.5 goals, but it turns out we ended up being the sauerkrauts...

Sorry folks, no in-depth analysis today, just picks:

• FC Basel PICK'em
• FC Basel v AS Roma UNDER 2.5 goals
• CFR Cluj +1/2
• CFR Cluj v Bayern München OVER 2.5 goals
• Chelsea v Spartak Moscow OVER 3 goals
• MSK Zilina +1
• Auxerre PICK'em
  
• AC Milan PICK'em
• AC Milan v Real Madrid UNDER 2.5 goals
• Sporting de Braga PICK'em
• FK Partizan v Sporting de Braga UNDER 2.5 goals
• Shakhtar Donetsk v Arsenal OVER 2.5 goals
  

A Day to Play

Let the extravagant ceremonies begin!

Its a Champions League matchday yet again, and if you aren't as excited as we are, what the hell is wrong with you? Today and tomorrow there will be some crucial matchups for each group, and we plan on being on the winning end of them.

Group A
Every team in this group has something to play for today. If Inter top Tottenham in North London today, they lock up a second round berth. Also, if that were to happen, the winner of Werder Bremen v FC Twente would leapfrog Tottenham in the group standings, so look for some serious action in Group A today. As for betting, we expect a stingy scoreline between Tottenham v Inter, possibly even a draw. The only thing that concerns us for betting under 2.5 goals is that Tottenham have only kept two clean sheets this season from 16 games, so you confidently anticipate an Inter goal. As for Werder Bremen v FC Twente, we expect goals. Werder Bremen are, well, Werder Bremen. Only 3 of Werder's 17 matches in all competitions have been under 2.5 goals this season. That is a staggering number of goals and we expect the trend to continue as they play FC Twente who have shown the ability to score in European competition. Our sportsbook has the total at 3 goals, we'll comfortably take the over.

Group B
Lyon have the opportunity to seal up the top of the group today in their match against Benfica. Lyon have displayed defensive supremacy in this group stage, allowing only a single goal so far. Expect a low scoreline as Lyon were only able to score twice against Benfica in their recent 2-0 home win. Take under 2.5 goals at wherever you can find the best price. The other fixture in this group, Hapoel Tel Aviv v FC Schalke will produce some goals. Hapoel Tel Aviv love to have a go attacking at home, and impressively have gotten on the scoresheet in their past two Champions League meetings, including their away game at Schalke where the final was 3-1. With nothing to lose, expect them to just play their game. Both teams are likely to score, so take over 2.5 goals.

Group C
Bursaspor haven't scored yet in their Champions League campaign, all while allowing 6 goals in three games. We expect them to continue their scoring drought today as they host Manchester United. Our sportsbook has Manchester United at one goal favorites right now, and we say take that bet. Valencia host Rangers, and Rangers are making this a tricky bet. Everyone knows Rangers reputation of playing extremely defensive football in European competition, and we fully expect that tonight as they approach a high-scoring side in Valencia. Rangers have a one-point lead on Valencia right now in their group, so we expect Rangers to shamelessly dig in to secure a point from a draw. Valencia are currently 1.5 goal favorites and the match total is set at 2.5 goals. We say, take Rangers at 1.5 goal underdogs, and take under 2.5 goals.

Group D
Barcelona will be paying Kobenhavn a visit today, and the books have made it a tricky tricky bet to make. Barcelona are in amazing form after drumming Sevilla 5-0 over the weekend. Messi and David Villa both looked incredible, which is the main reason why Barcelona have opened at 1.5 goal favorites against Kovenhavn on the road. Barcelona were only able to muster a 2-0 win against them at the Nou Camp due to a Messi brace. This season we have seen home teams display the ability to dig in defensively against Barcelona and keep it tight for as long as possible. As good a team as Barcelona are, they have had trouble keeping clean sheets this season, so we like Kobenhavn's chances at 1.5 goal underdogs today. As for Rubin Kazan v Panathinaikos? We'll take under 2.5 goals.

Today's Picks

• Werder Bremen v FC Twente OVER 3 goals
• Benfica v Lyon UNDER 2.5 goals
• Hapoel Tel Aviv v FC Schalke OVER 2.5 goals
• Manchester United -1
• Rangers +1.5
• Valencia v Rangers UNDER 2.5 goals
• Kobenhavn +1.5
• Rubin Kazan v Panathinaikos UNDER 2.5 goals
  

Sunday Litter

Remember this little bugger?

Here is our litter of picks for Sunday:

English Premier League

• Newcastle United v Sunderland OVER 2.5 goals
• Bolton Wanderers MONEYLINE
• Bolton Wanderers v Liverpool UNDER 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga

• Mainz v Borussia Dortmund OVER 2.5 goals

La Liga

• Athletic Bilbao v Getafe OVER 2.5 goals
• Malaga v Real Sociedad OVER 2.5 goals
  

Saturday Solids

We've got a handful of picks today. Courtesy of the interesting matchups in the EPL this weekend, we've decided to approach scoreline totals for the most part. The last 6 times Blackburn have hosted Chelsea, the total has been under 2.5 goals, even under Ancelotti's regime as they drew 1-1 last March. A certain London derby has been trending under 2.5 goals the past few years as well: Arsenal v West Ham. While everyone fancies Arsenal to bag a handful of goals every weekend apparently, we don't. Not today at least. The last time Arsenal hosted West Ham and the goal total went over 2.5? February 1st, 2006. Repeat that a few times. But wait, there is even more good news. I don't know about your sportsbook but mine has the total at 3.5. Get your book's good action while you can.

A few more unders that don't need as much explanation. Everton are 9-1 Under/Over 2.5 this season. Thats right folks, Everton have only had a match go over 2.5 goals once this season. They are playing Stoke this weekend so if you need anymore encouragement that under 2.5 goals is a strong play, listen to this: Stoke are averaging a goal every 120 minutes when on the road.

Guess what? Another under 2.5 play for you. Fulham v Wigan. Why? Because, this fixture has only gone over 2.5 goals once in the past 5 meetings. Plus, have you seen the way Mark Hughes has Fulham playing?

English Premier League

• Fulham v Wigan UNDER 2.5 goals
• Arsenal v West Ham UNDER 3.5 goals
• Everton v Stoke City UNDER 2.5 goals
• Blackburn v Chelsea UNDER 2.5 goals
  

Domestic Cup Action! We love it!

Everybody loves trophies. Thats why the teams that are playing today... are playing today. The European scoreboard is littered with domestic cup action today, and we want in on it. Here are a variety of picks from us for the Carling Cup/Copa del Rey:

Carling Cup

• Birmingham v Brentford OVER 2.5 goals
  
• Ipswich Town v Northampton Town OVER 2.5 goals
  
• Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion OVER 2.5 goals
  
• Wigan Athletic -1/2
  
• Wigan Athletic v Swansea City UNDER 2.5 goals
  
• Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 3 goals

Copa del Rey

• Barcelona -2
• Ceuta v Barcelona OVER 3 goals

Europa League is Football Crack!

If you are a football junkie like any of us here at the Football Bill, then you love the Europa League. Why? Just look how many god damn fixtures there are today. When was the last time you even got excited for football on a random Thursday? There are a total of 24 fixtures today to get your football rocks off. We know we will.

Regarding any betting, we don't really have any early leans. We will be taking a closer look at the matches concerning some of the bigger clubs, but on the whole, we'll be picking every matchup and scoreline total. Thats what we do here at the Bill, we get it done!

Early Games

• VfB Stuttgart -1/2
• VfB Stuttgart v Getafe OVER 2.5 goals
• BSC Young Boys -1
• BSC Young Boys v Odense BK OVER 3 goals
• Anderlecht -1/2
• Anderlecht v AEK Athens UNDER 2.5 goals
• Zenit Saint-Petersburg -1.5
• Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Hajduk Split OVER 3 goals
• Debreceni VSC +1
• Debreceni VSC v PSV Eindhoven UNDER 2.5 goals
• Metalist Kharkiv PICK to win
• Metalist Kharkiv v Sampdoria UNDER 2.5 goals
• Karpaty Lviv +1/2
• Karpaty Lviv v Sevilla UNDER 2.5 goals
• Paris Saint-Germain +1
• Borussia Dortmund v Paris Saint-Germain UNDER 2.5 goals
• Napoli -1/2
• Napoli v Liverpool UNDER 2.5 goals
• FC Utrecht -1/2
• FC Utrecht v Steaua Bucuresti UNDER 2.5 goals
• Besiktas JK PICK to win
• Besiktas JK v FC Porto OVER 2.5 goals
• SK Rapid Wien PICK to win
• CSKA Sofia v SK Rapid Wien OVER 2.5 goals
  

Late Games

• Juventus -1/2
• Red Bull Salzburg v Juventus OVER 2.5 goals
• Manchester City -1.5
• Manchester City v Lech Poznan OVER 3 goals
• Aris Thessaloniki +1/2
• Aris Thessaloniki v Bayer 04 Leverkusen UNDER 2.5 goals
• Rosenborg BK +1.5
• Atletico Madrid v Rosenborg BK OVER 3 goals
• Lille OSC -1.5
• Lille OSC v Levski Sofia OVER 2.5 goals
• KAA Gent +1.5
• Sporting CP v KAA Gent OVER 2.5 goals
• Dinamo Zagreb -1/2
• Dinamo Zagreb v Club Brugge OVER 2.5 goals
• PAOK +1.5
• Villareal v PAOK UNDER 3 goals
• AZ Alkmaar PICK to win
• AZ Alkmaar v Dynamo Kyiv OVER 2.5 goals
• Sheriff Tiraspol PICK to win
• Sheriff Tiraspol v FC BATE Borisov OVER 2.5 goals
• FC Lausanne-Sport +1.5
• AC Sparta Praha v FC Lausanne-Sport UNDER 2.5 goals
• Palermo -1/2
• Palermo v CSKA Moscow OVER 2.5 goals
  

Champs League Relapse

Will Wayne Rooney's latest antics interfere with Manchester United's performance today?

Only a quick writeup today as I'm leaving shortly for Italy. Plenty of juicy matchups today, namely Inter v Tottenham|Lyon v Benfica|Rangers v Valencia. Inter v Tottenham will be interesting to see if Spurs can stop the goal-scoring freight train that is Sammy Eto'o. He just can't stop scoring and the sportsbooks have taken notice of that, putting Spurs at one goal underdogs. We can't blame them, its pretty safe to assume that Eto'o will score at least once against Tottenham's injury-stricken backline. Spurs will probably look to score through the air with Crouch any chance they get as Inter have shown a weakness for this in the past few weeks. Either way, Inter look too strong to outright lose to Spurs. Take Inter laying a goal, and under 2.5 goals.

Lyon has a task on their hands. They cannot underestimate Benfica's ability to attack today. On a positive note, Lyon have been clinical at home in Champions League, averaging under one goal allowed at home in 8 matches since August of last year. Take under 2.5 goals, and Lyon laying half a goal. We expect them to squeak out a 1-0 or 2-0 result.

Will Rangers be able to cope with Valencia's speed? We'll certainly find out. Valencia has the ability to score a lot of goals on any given day, but we expect Rangers to do what they do best, defend. We like that they are half goal underdogs at home, mainly because a draw is a strong possibility. Take under 2.5 goals, and depending on what value you like, either take Rangers at +1/2 or the draw. All our picks are below:

• Internazionale -1
• Inter v Tottenham UNDER 2.5 goals
• Werder Bremen PICK to win
• FC Twente v Werder Bremen OVER 3 goals
• FC Schalke 04 -1
• FC Schalke 04 v Hapoel Tel Aviv OVER 2.5 goals
• Lyon -1/2
• Lyon v Benfica UNDER 2.5 goals
• Rangers +1/2
• Rangers v Valencia UNDER 2.5 goals
• Manchester United -1.5
• Manchester United v Buraspor OVER 3 goals
• Panathinaikos PICK to win
• Panathinaikos v Rubin Kazan OVER 2 goals
• FC Kobenhavn +2.5
• FC Barcelona v FC Kobenhavn OVER 3.5 goals
  

Chump's League Holiday!

Remember me?

We love all the riff raff manager press conferences heading into a two-day Champions League binge. Its their time to shine in the few days/hours leading up to when the players get the spotlight back for 90 minutes, then they get the soapbox back yet again in the following days before domestic league football starts again.

For example, Sir Alex Ferguson just held a press conference detailing how Wayne Rooney hates his guts, doesn't want to extend his Man U contract, and wants to play for Birmingham City. By the way, only one part of that is true, but still shocking. We love Mourinho though. He is the king of the press conference. Talk about cheeky, he began his usual mind games this week by saying he fears Inzaghi the most before Madrid's clash with AC Milan. What he said is basically a kick in the groin to his former favorite striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who no less than year ago Mourinho was toting as the best striker in the world in virtually the same press conference. Ohhhh Mourinho, you are a cheeky one, you are so cheeky, you are butt cheeky.

There are negatives though when it comes to this onslaught of outspoken managers. Arsene effin' Wenger. You can count on him and his toupée referencing the Eduardo tackle pre/post match this week as Arsenal prepare to take on Shakhtar Donetsk. We'll be putting Wenger on permanent mute this week for good reason.

Anyways, now for what you are really here for! Our predictions! Spartak Moscow v Chelsea is an interesting fixture because neither team is a slouch. If the past few weeks have told us anything about Chelsea against decent opposition, its that they can be tamed, slightly. Manchester City recently beat them, and Aston Villa had the brass to hold them to a 0-0 draw. There is one more x-factor to consider though, and its Spartak's pitch. Its that awful artificial stuff. You know, the same kind of pitch that was an absolute mess for Tottenham against BSC Young Boys??? We have a feeling that will come into play for the Chelsea squad and their ability to play dominating football. We fancy a low scoreline for this fixture, so if you want to be safe, take under 2.5 goals, although if you believe in Spartak to win there is really good value for them. Remember, Chelsea will be without Alex|Lampard|Bosingwa|Drogba, so this is the best shot of any that Spartak will probably ever have at getting three points against Chelsea. Ajax v Auxerre is next on the list. Simply put, take under 2.5 goals in this match. Auxerre simply cannot score on the road and they can certainly dig in and play solid defense for 90 minutes. If you'd like extra value, take a 0-0 halftime result as well. In case you didn't know, AS Roma v FC Basel is a really juicy matchup for gamblers. Why? Because Roma are 5-0 against Swiss teams in Italy. Need another reason? They've only conceded 2 goals in those 5 wins. Take Roma moneyline or at one goal favorites, depends on how thick your wallet is. Grab a beer, plop down on a couch, and enjoy the next 48 hours of Champions League action. The rest of our picks are below:

• Spartak Moscow PICK to win
• Spartak Moscow v Chelsea UNDER 2.5 goals
• Ajax -1
• Ajax v Auxerre UNDER 2.5 goals
• Arsenal -1
• Arsenal v Shakhtar Donetsk UNDER 2.5 goals
• Roma -1
• Roma v FC Basel UNDER 2.5 goals
• Bayern München -1.5
• Bayern München v CFR Cluj OVER 3 goals
• MSK Zilina +1.5
• Marseille v MSK Zilina UNDER 2.5 goals
• AC Milan to win @ +500
  
• Real Madrid v AC Milan OVER 2.5 goals
• FK Partizan +1/2
• Sporting Braga v FK Partizan OVER 2.5 goals

Our picks for Wednesday's action will be up tomorrow morning.

Weekend Pick-Off Competition!

Most likely Hairy Redkrapp's Polish stack...

We are having a bit of an office pool here at the Football Bill. This weekend all four correspondents chose one of the five major European leagues to make five picks in. We are all going against each other, may the best degenerate gambler win!

CaptainRon19 (Me!)
English Premier League

• Fulham v Tottenham UNDER 2.5 goals
  
• Everton v Liverpool UNDER 2.5 goals
  
• Newcastle -1/2
• Manchester United v West Brom UNDER 3 goals
• Aston Villa v Chelsea UNDER 2.5 goals

Hairy Redkrapp
La Liga

• Valencia +1.5
• Barcelona v Valencia UNDER 3 goals
• Deportivo v Osasuna OVER 2 goals
• Villareal PICK to win
• Racing Santander v Almeria DRAW

Branz Feckenbauer
Bundesliga

• Kaiserslautern PICK to win
• Wolfsburg PICK to win
• Bayern München v Hannover UNDER 3 goals
• Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen UNDER 3 goals
• Hannover +1.5

The 4th Official
Serie A

• AC Milan -1
• Lazio PICK to win
• Cagliari v Inter Milan UNDER 2.5 goals
• Juventus MONEYLINE
• Ac Milan v Chievo OVER 2.5 goals

Depending on how this competition goes, and if we all have fun, it may become a regular once-a-month addition to the Football Bill.

The 12th Man

Home sides are 0-2-1 in Mark Halsey's three starts this season.

What better way than for me, the 4th Official, to give you all a little insight into how certain referees mean a lot to certain matches that you could/would potentially bet on. If you've been overlooking the ref factor, then its about time you got with the program. Step into my office, as we analyze the 12th man.

As you all know, there is a system in place that promotes/demotes referees based on their past performances. For example, Mike Dean gets demoted down to the Championship a lot, because its official, he is an awful official. I won't back that statement up with stats or facts because I don't have to, this is the internet. And rightfully so, Mike Dean sucks. That being said, the EPL certainly has their darlings. Howard Webb is obviously the first that comes to mind. He is the face of English officiating. Why? We have no idea. He is horribly inconsistent and is prone to make sensationalist calls/no-calls, particularly in big matches. In case you didn't see the world cup final (we envy you if you missed it, the match was awful), Howard Webb blew it. Entirely. So, not surprisingly, he has been used rather sparingly so far this season in the EPL. He has only made 4 starts through round eight of the season. We say good! Before we start breaking down statistics though, here are the officials appointed for this weekend's batch of EPL matches:

Appointed Officials 16/10/2010

Arsenal v Birmingham City

Martkin Atkinson

Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City

Peter Walton

Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur

Mike Dean

Manchester United v West Bromwich Albion

Mark Jones

Newcastle United v Wigan Athletic

Mark Halsey

Wolverhampton Wanderers v West Ham United

Mark Clattenburg

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Lee Mason

Appointed Officials 17/10/2010

Everton v Liverpool

Howard Webb

Blackpool v Manchester City

Phil Dowd

The Dirt
Grab a cup of coffee (or tea!) and prepare yourself for a statistical onslaught. The chart below has a list of every official who has started a match so far this EPL season. It also shows you how many matches total they have started, so you will have to refer back to this chart to put the other numbers in perspective.

First things first. Phil Dowd has the most starts of any referee this year. Personally, we like that because we think Phil Dowd, for the most part, does a great job officiating. Its also nice to see that Howard Webb has only officiated four matches so far, however between him and Mike Dean, they've started 10 games too many...

 

We really like this chart. Why? Just look at it! If I had just randomly told you one day that in the three matches Mark Halsey has officiated the home team has never won, would you believe me? Probably not, but now you are a believer. There are a few glaring statistics when looking at this chart. From a betting point of view, it helps betting a draw/away team upset. Between the 14 matches that Marriner, Attwell, and Lee Mason have officiated, the home side won a total of 3 matches. The rest: 8 draws and 3 away wins. What does this mean? It means whenever any of those three refs are starting, bet against the home side, and depending on the value you can get from your sportsbook, try and earn some extra scratch on the lucrative draw/big underdog away team. On the other side of the spectrum, Martin Atkinson & Mark Clattenburg have both officiated into the home team's hands so far this season. Together they've started 12 matches, 8 of which the home side won, the other 4 were draws. Yes, you read that correctly: The away team has never won in the 12 games that Atkinson & Clattenburg have called. Thats all we'll say for now regarding this chart. It isn't rocket science so we will let you guys take a longer look to figure out which consistencies/inconsistencies you want to use to influence the way you bet.

This chart is pretty self-explanatory. Here we get a good look at which refs are whistle happy. In this case, its Kevin Friend by a country mile. He averages 4-15 more whistles per match than any other official. This is something you may want to take into consideration when betting on a match including a team that usually dominates possession. We say this because if K. Friend is calling that match, you can bet your ass that the opportunities to score for that team will increase ten-fold when you consider all the additional deadball/freekick situations they will receive. On the contrary, refs who tend to keep their whistle arm at their side, such as Watson, Foy, and Michael Jones, will drastically play into the hands of the more physical sides in the EPL. You know who they are... (Stoke/Blackburn/Wolves etc.)

This is my favorite visual of the bunch. Now we can see which refs have a tendency to be influenced by the home crowd. Not surprisingly, the same two officials (Atkinson & Clattenburg) who away sides have never won with in 12 matches show exactly why according to these numbers. They show a noticeable amount of calls against the away team compared to the home team. They aren't alone however, the worst culprit is Mark Halsey. Lee Probert, Lee Mason, and Phil Dowd also have a tendency to favor the home team too. If you are looking for an away team upset, look no further than Anthony Taylor's matches. He has called a whopping 63% of his calls against the home team this year.

The rest of this information you can analyze yourself. I've written too much already. Just know that these last set of tables will help you know when a ref will potentially cause the total amount of goals to increase, thus you can make some cash on betting over the goal total. Refs like Michael Oliver, Michael Jones, and Martin Atkinson can't help themselves when it comes to issuing penalties.

There is tons of information here, too much to break down in writing, so we will leave this database to you all to do with it what you will. This information will now be a new section on the blog and it will be updated after each round of the EPL so you can see how each refs tendencies have or haven't changed. You know what they say, some people never change...

Euro Winner!

No one can argue against Huntelaar's impressive goal tally for the national team.

We had a great day here at the Football Bill as we went 10-5-5 in our bets. Here is how the picks broke down:

• Faroe Islands v. Northern Ireland UNDER 2.5 Goals
• Azerbaijan v. Turkey OVER 2.5 goals
• Finland v. Hungary OVER 2 goals
• Germany -2.5
• Latvia v. Georgia OVER 2 goals
• Georgia PICK
• Liechtenstein +2
• Liechtenstein v. Czech Republic UNDER 3 goals
• Cyprus +1.5
• Ireland PICK
• Slovakia v. Ireland OVER 2 goals
• Switzerland v. Wales UNDER 2.5 goals
• Netherlands -1
• Macedonia v. Russia OVER 2.5 goals
• Italy -1/2 - GAME POSTPONED/ABANDONED
  
• England v. Montenegro UNDER 2.5 goals
• Spain -1.5
• Scotland v. Spain OVER 2.5 goals
• Luxembourg +3
• France v. Luxembourg UNDER 3.5 goals
• Iceland v. Portugal OVER 2.5 goals

Check back here in a few days as we will have our picks up for all the club action this weekend. As always, good luck!

Buckle Up!

Today is loaded with International madness! There are a total of 22 European qualifying matches today, and we have 21 plays for you to check out. Seriously, there is money to be made today. Here are the plays we like:

• Faroe Islands v. Northern Ireland UNDER 2.5 Goals
• Azerbaijan v. Turkey OVER 2.5 goals
• Finland v. Hungary OVER 2 goals
• Germany -2.5
• Latvia v. Georgia OVER 2 goals
• Georgia PICK
• Liechtenstein +2
• Liechtenstein v. Czech Republic UNDER 3 goals
• Cyprus +1.5
• Ireland PICK
• Slovakia v. Ireland OVER 2 goals
• Switzerland v. Wales UNDER 2.5 goals
• Netherlands -1
• Macedonia v. Russia OVER 2.5 goals
• Italy -1/2
  
• England v. Montenegro UNDER 2.5 goals
• Spain -1.5
• Scotland v. Spain OVER 2.5 goals
• Luxembourg +3
• France v. Luxembourg UNDER 3.5 goals
• Iceland v. Portugal OVER 2.5 goals

Good luck, and enjoy the football!

A New Era

Ukraine v. Brazil will be kicking off shortly, and we just couldn't help ourselves. We've got action for you in more ways than one. Ukraine will be missing Andriy Shevchenko as well as their starting two centerbacks. The battered defense allowed an embarrassing 2-2 draw with Canada less than three days ago, in Kiev! Canada people, god damn Canada.

Menezes will be starting his usual young Brazilian squad who are hungry to perform, so we expect goals. Here are our plays:

• Brazil -1 @ -165
• OVER 2.5 goals @ -155

As always, good luck!

Todays Late Picks

Besides the Croatia bet we posted yesterday, we have two more bets for you today.

• France to win @ -175
• France v. Romania UNDER 2.5 goals @ -175

Good luck everyone!

The Internationals!

We love international football here are the football bill. Being able to rep your country is always fun, especially when it comes to sports. The staff here come from all walks of life, but if you must know, the teams being rooted for here are Germany, Romania, Wales, Croatia, and Ireland. What are your colors?

Anyways, down to business. Russia and Turkey are both missing key players, and they are facing tough road matches already. Look for them to fall against Ireland and Germany respectively. As for some of the European giants, Italy travels to Northern Ireland, and Spain hosts Lithuania. We expect Spain to continue their amazing form, and Italy will be keen to get three points against Northern Ireland. The scoreline is usually slim when teams play N. Ireland. They usually dig in and make teams grind out results, so expect a 1-0 win for Italy in typical Italian fashion.

For Saturday, we like Croatia to beat Israel on the road. Croatia have proven themselves to be a gritty road team under Slaven Bilić. The last time they lost on the road was September of last year, and that was against England.

Friday

• Germany -1 @ +105
• Ireland to win @ +150
• Italy -1/2 @ -150
• Spain -2.5 @ +105

Saturday

• Croatia to win @ +130
  

Hot 'n Cold Transfers -EPL Edition

Just as any summer off-season goes, things got a bit crazy in the transfer market this year. With the World Cup having just wrapped up, we all saw the stock of players rise and fall, and now we will take a look at who has been hot and cold since moving.

There is a strong group of players who have made a little noise since moving. Marouane Chamakh has started padding his statistics a bit at Arsenal, scoring 4 goals in 10 appearances while racking up a whopping one assist. This is the same player that everyone was raving about at Bordeaux right? The alleged "most unselfish striker in Europe". Some of his critics have pointed out that he is unable to make a presence against defenses of significance (Chelsea… ahem). Good thing Arsenal got him on a free transfer.

At least Chamakh doesn’t have Nikola Zigic’s numbers though. Standing at 6’8”, the gentle giant has made 6 appearances since joining Birmingham City, and yet he has laid two goose eggs so far in the stat columns that matter most for his position, goals and assists.

Probably one of the quietest but largest contributors since the transfer window has closed has been Martin Petrov. Since his move to Bolton he has started all 7 premier league games for them, and has bagged a goal and 2 assists in the process. One of the better left-foots in the entire league, he never shies away from showcasing it. Along with his goal and assists, he has taken 21 shots, 7 on goal. If his days of being injury-prone are numbered, then keep an eye on those stats as they will likely increase.

You can lump Moussa Dembele in with Petrov as well. 3 goals and 2 assists in 5 appearances is very nice. Did we mention he is only 23?!? Now if only Mark Hughes could show him and Fulham how to outscore opponents on the reg, draws are playyyyyed out.

There has been a Benayoun sighting at Chelsea, just barely. The dribbling supremo has only been able to strut his stuff in 5 short appearances for Chelsea, getting one goal while he could. We can’t dog him for it though, have you seen what the rest of the cast at Chelsea has been doing? His counterpart Joe Cole has made one less appearance at Liverpool, and got his goal in Europa League. I’m sure Roy was thrilled…

Manchester City! You could get carpal tunnel syndrome from writing too much about their transfers, so we’ll keep it brief. Amongst their plethora of signings, Yaya Toure, James Milner, and David Silva have looked impressive for the most part, but on the whole, its still their workhorse Carlos Tevez driving the City machine.

Chicharito looks like another great young prospect coming down the pipe for Sir Alex Ferguson, surprise surprise! He has looked good enough in training to earn himself 7 appearances this early in the season. In case you haven’t noticed, his two goals this season have come in big games, one in the Community Shield to help Manchester United raise the hardware, and a crucial stoppage time goal in Spain against Valencia to earn a Champions League away win. Last time we checked, those are highly coveted in the group stages. Bebe who?

Hatem Ben Arfa looked like he was going to enjoy a prosperous season with his latest club Newcastle United, but his season has been cut drastically short, if not completely, thanks to the psychotic antics of Nigel De Jong. We wish him a swift recovery. His winning goal he scored against Everton a few weeks ago was straight sexy.

We have been jonesing for some Kenwyne Jones. Since moving to Stoke City, he has been in electric form. 4 goals in 7 appearances, the man has been clinical, he is already on pace to smash his numbers from last season, the same numbers that made headlines for him. Watch out people. Also, a shout out to Jermaine Pennant for his one assist in 3 games, we can dig it. I bet you don’t miss Liverpool anymore…

Spurs have had a peculiar transfer window, mainly in that their signings were late. Yet, even with the earliest signing of the entire summer transfer window, Sandro Cordeiro, Tottenham couldn’t find him until a few weeks into the season. Who cares though, because their latest, and we mean latest, like buzzer-beater signing of Rafael Van der Vaart from Real Madrid has already paid dividends. The man has been on an absolute tear through the Premier League and that other league that is a big deal, oh ummmm, Champions League! In total, we’ve seen 4 goals, one assist, 34 shots, 14 on goal, and all of that in only SIX appearances! Ohhhh the wheeler ‘n dealer ‘Arry is but says he isn’t. You’ve gotta love it.

Remember that quick-footed, sick dribbler for Nigeria in the World Cup? Yeah, we do too. Turns out his name is Peter Odemwingie, and he signed with West Brom in August. Since then he has just been mounting opposing teams from behind, including Arsenal as he played a vital role in the epic upset that went down in North London. We’ve heard your thunder Peter! 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 games, good on ya! You’ve really got our attention now, keep up the good work!

A few more shout outs: Freddy Piquionne @ the Hammers, Tom Cleverly @ Wigan aka the Roberto Martinez Project, and Jean Claude Van Damme/Steven Fletcher @ Wolves. Tell Karl Henry to get his act together while he still has an acting gig.

Anybody else you can think of that deserves a shout? Go ahead and give 'em a shout in the comments or @TheFootballBill on twitter.

Still Winners!

Andrea Pirlo after his cannon strike winning goal against Parma.

Yea, we stuck our necks out a bit this weekend. We had to prove that we hadn't lost that winning touch by picking every single matchup and scoreline total in the EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1. Well the results are in, and after an exhausting 98 picks we've made, our record was: 49 wins, 41 losses, and 8 pushes (49-41-8).

Here is how the individual leagues broke down:

English Premier League: 13-6-1
La Liga: 8-11-1
Bundesliga: 7-8-3
Serie A: 10-8-2
Ligue 1: 11-8-1

Friday

Bundesliga (0-2)

• Hannover 96 MONEYLINE @ EVEN | Over 3 goals @ +120
  

Saturday

English Premier League (9-5)

• Wolves PICK @ +130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -150
  
• Birmingham v. Everton DRAW @ +220 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140
• West Ham -1/2 @ +120 | Over 2.5 goals @ +115
• Sunderland +1/2 @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -125
• Tottenham Hotspur -1/2 @ -110 | Over 2.5 goals @ -130
• Bolton +1/2 @ -140 | Under 2.5 goals @ -115
• Stoke PICK @ -160 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140

La Liga (3-3)

• Real Zaragoza -1/2 @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -130
• Real Sociedad v. Espanyol DRAW @ +220 | Under 2.5 goals @ -160
• Valencia MONEYLINE @ -167 | Over 2.5 goals @ -120

Bundesliga (5-3-2)

• Hoffenheim PICK @ +120 | Over 2.5 goals @ -110
• Schalke 04 PICK @ -155 | Over 2.5 goals @ -110
• FC Kaiserslautern +1 @ -115 | Over 3 goals @ +110
• Borussia Mönchengladbach +1/2 @ -140 | Under 3 goals @ EVEN
• SC Freiburg -1/2 @ +120 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140

Serie A (3-1)

• Udinese MONEYLINE @ -140 | Under 2.5 goals @ -135
• Parma +1/2 @ -135 | Under 2.5 goals @ -130

Ligue 1 (8-5-1)

• Bordeaux -1/2 @ -125 | Over 2.5 goals @ +120
• Lyon PICK @ -175 | Over 2.5 goals @ +130
• Auxerre -1/2 @ EVEN | Over 2 goals @-120
• Monaco -1/2 @ -115 | Over 2 goals @ -120
• Sochaux -1/2 @ +110 | Over 2.5 goals @ +125
• Caen +1/2 @ -150 | Over 2 goals @ -120
• Marseille PICK @ -130 | Over 2.5 goals @ +110

Sunday


English Premier League (4-1-1)

• Manchester City MONEYLINE @ -250 | Over 2.5 goals @ -135
• Blackpool +1 1/2 @ -115 | Under 3 goals @ -125
• Chelsea MONEYLINE @ -150 | Over 2.5 goals @ -130

La Liga (5-8-1)

• Villareal -1 @ +120 | Over 2.5 goals @ -115
• Sevilla PICK @ -160 | Over 2.5 goals @ -125
• Hercules CF +1/2 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -120
• Malaga PICK @ +130 | Over 2.5 goals @ -105
• Osasuna -1/2 @ -130 | Over 2.5 goals @ +105
• Mallorca +2 @ -110 | Under 3 goals @ +110
• Deportivo La Coruna +2 @ -115 | Under 3 goals @ -115

Bundesliga (2-3-1)

• Stuttgart MONEYLINE @ -110 | Over 3 goals @ +110
• Bayern München PICK @ -105 | Over 3 goals @ EVEN
• Werder Bremen +1/2 @ -140 | Over 3 goals @ -115

Serie A (7-7-2)

• Lecce PICK @ -150 | Under 2.5 goals @ -155
• Roma PICK @ +115 | Under 2.5 goals @ -110
• Bologna PICK @ -125 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140
• Genoa -1/2 @ -105 | Over 2.5 goals @ -105
• Cagliari PICK @ +135 | Over 2.5 goals @ +105
• Fiorentina -1/2 @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -125
• Lazio MONEYLINE @ -150 | Over 2.5 goals @ -105
• Inter -1/2 @ -120 | Over 2.5 goals @ -115

Ligue 1 (3-3)

• Lille v. Montpellier DRAW @ +240 | Under 2.5 goals @ -155
• Nice +1 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -155
• Stade Rennais v. Toulouse DRAW @ +215 | Over 2 goals @ -120

Sundays Picks

Here they are:

English Premier League

• Manchester City MONEYLINE @ -250 | Over 2.5 goals @ -135
• Blackpool +1 1/2 @ -115 | Under 3 goals @ -125
• Chelsea MONEYLINE @ -150 | Over 2.5 goals @ -130

La Liga

• Villareal -1 @ +120 | Over 2.5 goals @ -115
• Sevilla PICK @ -160 | Over 2.5 goals @ -125
• Hercules CF +1/2 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -120
• Malaga PICK @ +130 | Over 2.5 goals @ -105
• Osasuna -1/2 @ -130 | Over 2.5 goals @ +105
• Mallorca +2 @ -110 | Under 3 goals @ +110
• Deportivo La Coruna +2 @ -115 | Under 3 goals @ -115

Bundesliga

• Stuttgart MONEYLINE @ -110 | Over 3 goals @ +110
• Bayern München PICK @ -105 | Over 3 goals @ EVEN
• Werder Bremen +1/2 @ -140 | Over 3 goals @ -115

Serie A

• Lecce PICK @ -150 | Under 2.5 goals @ -155
• Roma PICK @ +115 | Under 2.5 goals @ -110
• Bologna PICK @ -125 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140
• Genoa -1/2 @ -105 | Over 2.5 goals @ -105
• Cagliari PICK @ +135 | Over 2.5 goals @ +105
• Fiorentina -1/2 @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -125
• Lazio MONEYLINE @ -150 | Over 2.5 goals @ -105
• Inter -1/2 @ -120 | Over 2.5 goals @ -115

Ligue 1

• Lille v. Montpellier DRAW @ +240 | Under 2.5 goals @ -155
• Nice +1 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -155
• Stade Rennais v. Toulouse DRAW @ +215 | Over 2 goals @ -120
  

We've Lost Our Minds...

Thats right, we've actually gone crazy. We've picked every matchup and total for this weekend, in EVERY MAJOR LEAGUE! Anyways, we'd love to elaborate but there would be too much to talk about, so here are the Saturday picks:

English Premier League

• Wolves PICK @ +130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -150
  
• Birmingham v. Everton DRAW @ +220 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140
• West Ham -1/2 @ +120 | Over 2.5 goals @ +115
• Sunderland +1/2 @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -125
• Tottenham Hotspur -1/2 @ -110 | Over 2.5 goals @ -130
• Bolton +1/2 @ -140 | Under 2.5 goals @ -115
• Stoke PICK @ -160 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140

La Liga

• Real Zaragoza -1/2 @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -130
• Real Sociedad v. Espanyol DRAW @ +220 | Under 2.5 goals @ -160
• Valencia MONEYLINE @ -167 | Over 2.5 goals @ -120

Bundesliga

• Hoffenheim PICK @ +120 | Over 2.5 goals @ -110
• Schalke 04 PICK @ -155 | Over 2.5 goals @ -110
• FC Kaiserslautern +1 @ -115 | Over 3 goals @ +110
• Borussia Mönchengladbach +1/2 @ -140 | Under 3 goals @ EVEN
• SC Freiburg -1/2 @ +120 | Under 2.5 goals @ -140

Serie A

• Udinese MONEYLINE @ -140 | Under 2.5 goals @ -135
• Parma +1/2 @ -135 | Under 2.5 goals @ -130

Ligue 1

• Bordeaux -1/2 @ -125 | Over 2.5 goals @ +120
• Lyon PICK @ -175 | Over 2.5 goals @ +130
• Auxerre -1/2 @ EVEN | Over 2 goals @-120
• Monaco -1/2 @ -115 | Over 2 goals @ -120
• Sochaux -1/2 @ +110 | Over 2.5 goals @ +125
• Caen +1/2 @ -150 | Over 2 goals @ -120
• Marseille PICK @ -130 | Over 2.5 goals @ +110

Phewwwww...

Sauerkraut Special!¡!

Can Hannover 96 perform under the Friday Night Lights?

Recently promoted FC St. Pauli will travel to southern rivals Hannover 96 to play in front of their 49,000+ fans under the friday night lights of the Bundesliga. It has been an interesting season so far for both clubs. Hannover has displayed some dashing football both home and away, and as a result they currently sit in 3rd place on the table. FC St. Pauli currently sit mid-table in 10th place, mostly due to their road warrior nature. They boast a winning record on the road (2-1), but have yet to win at their own ground (0-2-1).

We've noticed a trend that FC St. Pauli has trouble with larger venues, and with recent news that the team has been in a bit of disarray on the training ground, especially after some teammate-on-teammate injury crime, we like Hannover 96 in this matchup. Even though one of the strikers in their partnership up front is missing, we took them straight up. 2-1, 3-1 to come for sure.

• Hannover 96 EVEN
• OVER 3 goals @ +120

When it Rains it Pours.

Another rough day at the office, but that is how capping European club competitions goes. Sure it makes for some great football and interesting matchups, but in the betting world, they are mysterious matchups. Apparently the only one we could get a grip on today was Young Boys v. Getafe. Proud of it yes, but we certainly aren't proud of a certain Carlos Tevez, who we all thought would rise to the occasion against Juventus and get his in front of his home crowd.

There is good news though. Domestic league action picks back up this weekend, and we will have free picks for all the major leagues in Europe, so save some dough to throw around this weekend. The rest you can spend on beer...

• Manchester City -1 @ +110
• Borussia Dortmund -1/2 @ -110
• BSC Young Boys PICK @ EVEN (We love our Young Boys... er...)
  
• Odense BK PICK @ +130

Monthly Record: 13-16-1 yuck!

Our Late-Play Bonus of the Day!

Here it is folks, our late-play bonus:

• Odense BK PICK @ +130

Good luck today everyone!

The Other European Tournament...

Who knows what to think of Roy Hodgson's latest comments about the Europa League being a non-priority. We say, stay away from Liverpool today! Here are our plays:

• Manchester City -1 @ +110
• Borussia Dortmund -1/2 @ -110
• BSC Young Boys PICK @ EVEN

Good luck and check our twitter for other possible plays!

Goals Galore! For some...

A cruel game, this gambling thing... We were a goal away from a winning day. Hey, that rhymes!

• FC Schalke 04 PICK @ -140
• Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Olympique Lyonnais UNDER 2.5 goals @ -140
• FB Barcelona -1 @ +110

This puts us at 12-13-1 on the month. Europa league action returns tomorrow, so check back here soon as we post our picks (wins...) up!

Still Winning You Money!

Here is how our picks finished yesterday:

*Purple signifies a push.

• Sporting de Braga (PICK) @ -175
• AJ Auxerre +1 @ -130
• Bayern München -1/2 @ EVEN

That puts our monthly record at 11-11-1.

Free Champions League Picks for Wednesday's Action!

Buckle up for even more Champions League action today as the matchups get even juicier. Manchester United will take an interesting trip to Valencia tonight in the midst of a general strike in Spain, while Inter Milan will host a Werder Bremen squad tattered with injuries.

Here are our picks for tonight:

• FC Schalke 04 PICK @ -140
• Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Olympique Lyonnais UNDER 2.5 goals @ -140
• FB Barcelona -1 @ +110

Good Luck!

The Football Bill is on Twitter!

You don't have to miss a beat now that we have our own Twitter account. Follow us at TheFootballBill.

Anytime there is a new blog post you will know immediately courtesy of our Twitter page. Also, there will be insider information regarding picks in real time! Also, you can talk with the experts before any game for last minute opinions/advice.

Do yourself a favor and follow us right now!

Champions League Free Picks for Tuesday!

Queue the terrible Champions League music...


Play these picks while you still can!

• Sporting de Braga (PICK) @ -175
• AJ Auxerre +1 @ -130
• Bayern München -1/2 @ EVEN

Enjoy all the Champions League action tomorrow, and good luck!

Sunday, Bloody Sunday...

A rough day for our picks here at the Football Bill offices after a pretty crazy weekend in the EPL. We were still able to pick every line and total at a healthy 50% clip (10-10), and this was an off weekend. Thanks to the likes of Man U, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham all going winless, things got a bit tricky this weekend. Either way, the winning machine that is the Football Bill rolls on! Make sure to check back next weekend for our free plays of the week!

Here is our rundown on the whole weekend:

Saturday, September 25th 2010

• Man City +1/2 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -105
• Blackburn -1/2 @ +115 | Over 2.5 goals @ -125
• Fulham v Everton DRAW @ +225 | Under 2.5 goals @ -150
• Birmingham City -1/2 @ -120 | Under 2.5 goals @ -150
• Arsenal -2 @ +120 | Over 3 goals @ -130
• Liverpool -1 @ -140 | Over 2.5 goals @ -115
• Tottenham Hotspur -1/2 @ EVEN | Over 2.5 goals @ -115

Sunday, September 26th 2010

• Manchester United -1 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ +110
• Wolves (Pick) @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -135
• Newcastle -1/2 @ -110 | Over 2.5 goals @ +105

A Super Saturday for the Football Bill

We got our football handicapping campaign off to a great start this Saturday as we went 9-5 in the English Premier League. Keep in mind this was on a day with some rather unlikely scorelines as the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, and Liverpool were held winless.

Here is how our Saturday picks played out:

Man City +1/2 | Under 2.5 goals
Blackburn -1/2 | Over 2.5 goals
Fulham vs. Everton DRAW | Under 2.5 goals
Birmingham City -1/2 | Under 2.5 goals
Arsenal -2 | Over 3 goals
Liverpool -1 | Over 2.5 goals
Tottenham Hotspur -1/2 | Over 2.5 goals

Our English Premier League Picks!

***The majority of the staff for this blog is based stateside, so any betting lines we use will be provided by www.bodog.com***

If you are based in the UK or continental Europe, please suggest any online sportsbooks that you prefer and we will begin providing picks from their lines as well. We aren't scared of any sportsbook!

Anywho, onto the picks!

Saturday, September 25th 2010

• Man City +1/2 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ -105
• Blackburn -1/2 @ +115 | Over 2.5 goals @ -125
• Fulham v Everton DRAW @ +225 | Under 2.5 goals @ -150
• Birmingham City -1/2 @ -120 | Under 2.5 goals @ -150
• Arsenal -2 @ +120 | Over 3 goals @ -130
• Liverpool -1 @ -140 | Over 2.5 goals @ -115
• Tottenham Hotspur -1/2 @ EVEN | Over 2.5 goals @ -115

Sunday, September 26th 2010

• Manchester United -1 @ -130 | Under 2.5 goals @ +110
• Wolves (Pick) @ EVEN | Under 2.5 goals @ -135
• Newcastle -1/2 @ -110 | Over 2.5 goals @ +105

Enjoy all the football action this weekend and make sure you spice up some of your viewing with a bet or two!

- The Football Bill

Welcome to the Football Bill

This blog is brand new and will be entirely devoted to football gambling discussion/handicapping.

Each week we will be giving out free picks for all the football action that weekend.

Since this is our first weekend, we will have each and every EPL match picked for you to see. Hopefully we put up a decent showing to earn some respect... :D

Enjoy, and get wagering!

P.S. - Will Manchester City be the first league opponents to finally stop the speeding train that is Chelsea?